US election: Is Biden’s massive clean energy programme under threat from Trump?

TL;DR

• With the US election approaching on 5^th November, the next President will play a key role in either furthering the fight against climate change and the transition to clean energy or halting – and potentially reversing - the progress already made.

• The Trump camp has made it clear that he intends to promote fossil fuel, repeal the Inflation Reduction Act, and exit the Paris agreement again. He has described the renewable energy sector as a scam business and believes the oil sector is critical to the US economy.

• Biden has introduced several climate-focused initiatives over the last four years, promoting electric vehicles, granting licenses for offshore wind power, rejoining the Paris agreement, and investing in carbon capture and sequestration. Harris is expected to build on this legacy.

• With the two candidates so polarised on the topic of clean energy and climate change, the outcome of the upcoming election could have a severe impact on the global fight against the climate crisis. With 2050 getting ever closer, and the effects of climate change impacting many communities, the world will be watching events in the US closely.

The detail

On November 5^th, the US will go to the polls to elect its next president. Initially, the election was going to be a rematch of the 2020 battle between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, but now that Biden has withdrawn, the fight will now be between Trump, the Republican candidate, and Biden’s VP, Kamala Harris, standing for the Democrats. As a superpower, the actions of the US government have global repercussions. The upcoming election will not only decide the next resident of the White House, but it will also set the political agenda for the next four years for the US and shape events in the wider world.

A clash of personalities and policies, the US election is more than just a popularity contest between Trump and Harris. Each candidate will try to attract swing voters by weighing in on the contentious issues that are dominating the discourse. The issues front of mind for voters include abortion, the economy, immigration, foreign policy (with a particular focus on events in Ukraine and Israel/Gaza), and the foundations of democracy itself, with the attack on the Capitol on 6^th January 2021 seen as a watershed moment for the country’s political system.

Commitments focused on climate change and the energy sector will also play an important role in the candidates’ campaigns. The US is the second largest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions in the world, with North America as a whole responsible for 32.4% of total global CO2 emissions from combustible fuels. However, it’s a divisive topic among the US population: 67% of adults believe the country should prioritise developing renewable energy sources over expanding the production of fossil fuels, but just 54% describe climate change as a major threat to the country’s wellbeing. There is also a wide gulf between Democrat and Republican voters on this issue, with 78% of Democrats believing climate change is a major threat compared to 23% of Republicans.

With its high rate of emissions and influential position on the world stage, the US can have a transformative impact on the fight against climate change. Its policies, attitudes and international commitments will undoubtedly be closely scrutinised by the rest of the world.

It looks set to be a tight race. Before Harris came into the picture, Trump was leading Biden by three points. The former president’s campaign claimed support in the polls after Trump was injured in an assassination attempt on July 13^th (an incident which also took the life of a bystander), but whether this uptick will last remains to be seen.

A fork in the road

With everything still to play for, American climate policies could look very different depending on whether Trump or Harris enters the Oval Office. A potential Trump presidency represents a crisis point for many climate activists. He is known for courting oil executives and promising favourable policies in return for campaign donations, while his frequent use of the phrase, “drill baby drill” at Republican rallies makes his position clear.

While Trump is yet to make any specific pledges on the climate and energy, he is expected to reverse many of Biden’s most celebrated climate policies, including tax credits for electric vehicles and strong emissions standards for cars and power plants by pushing through a targeted repeal of many commitments made by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Trump is also expected to withdraw the US from the Paris climate agreement again. His former Environmental Protection Agency Chief of Staff, Mandy Gunasekara, has said on record that: “The Paris climate accord does nothing to actually improve the environment here in the United States or globally.”

This disdain extends to renewable energy initiatives, which Trump has previously described as a “scam business”. If he wins a second term, he could well promote expanded fossil fuel production, sideline mainstream climate scientists and overturn rules that curb planet-heating emissions. Trump’s spokeswoman, Karoline Leavitt, said in a statement, that Trump plans to “cancel Joe Biden’s radical mandates, terminate the Green New Scam, and make America energy independent again.”

During his first term in office from 2016 to 2020, Trump tried to roll back or weaken nearly 100 environmental rules. According to a new analysis by Wood Mackenzie, Trump could jeopardise a projected $1 trillion in low-carbon energy investments, and carbon emissions could increase by up to one billion tonnes by 2050. As Myron Ebell, the former head of the Environmental Protection Agency transition team for Trump’s first term, said: “Trump will undo everything Biden has done, he will move more quickly and go further than he did before.”

Four years of progress

In contrast, when Biden ran for office in 2020, he proposed the most ambitious climate action platform of any major presidential candidate in US history. He set the tone for his administration’s approach to climate change immediately by re-joining the international Paris Agreement on his first day in office and ensured the US took a leading role in global policy making by hosting the Leaders’ Summit on Climate in April 2021.

By signing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into law in August 2022, Biden committed hundreds of billions of dollars to promote clean energy, electric vehicles and environmental justice. The IRA allocated £19 billion to support climate-smart agriculture and almost $3 billion to support carbon sequestration in urban forests and national public lands, while also introducing a $2,000 tax credit for new heat pumps, a 30% tax credit for residential solar systems and batteries, and $9 billion pledge to support state energy efficiency and electrification rebates.

When it comes to curbing emissions and promoting renewable energy, the Biden administration has committed to cutting total greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% by 2030. By executing a Permitting Action Plan, he secured $1 billion from the IRA to improve permitting in key sectors such as electric vehicle charging, broadband, CHIPS manufacturing and clean energy projects. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law also includes major investments in carbon capture and sequestration and clean hydrogen production and use.

In practice, this means that Biden has issued permits for more than 25 GW of clean energy projects on public lands and has approved the nation’s first 10 GW of large-scale offshore wind projects. By approving eight commercial scale offshore wind project licences in the last four years, he is putting the wheels in motion for wind energy to produce power for nearly four million homes.

During his time as president, Biden has seen the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind Project complete all its federal reviews and authorisations, approved the Dry Lake East Energy Center Solar Project to generate up to 200 MW of clean electricity in Nevada, and authorised the Cape Station Exploration Drilling Geothermal Energy Project, which is set to deliver 400 MW of carbon-free electricity in Utah.

Heading to the polls, poles apart

The contrasts between the two camps couldn’t be clearer. While on his first day in power, Biden re-entered the Paris agreement, Trump resurrected both the Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipeline projects just four days after taking office. Biden’s campaign rejected donations from the fossil fuel industry, while Trump actively courts oil magnates. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is under threat from another Trump administration which could open it up to oil exploration, while Biden had promised to permanently protect the region.

With just four months to go until the election, the US is increasingly polarised on the topic of climate change. Every presidential term has the potential to drive the fight against climate change forward or derail it. As 2050 gets ever closer, and the effects of the climate crisis continue to impact our daily lives with greater intensity, the next few years are crucial.

As David Brown, director of Energy Transition Research at Wood Mackenzie, puts it: “This election cycle will really influence the pace of energy investment, both in the next five years and through 2050.”

Whether the US chooses Trump or Harris, when it comes to the next President’s approach to climate change, the world is watching.

 — Lew 👋

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The Transition’s work is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as advice in any capacity. Always do your own research.