Onshore wind is back in the UK

TL;DR

• Due to negative public opinion and environmental concerns, the de-facto ban on onshore wind came into force in 2015. The industry has been effectively paused in the UK for the last nine years. 

• Public opinion has shifted in the past decade and the new government has responded to the need to accelerate the energy transition by overturning the ban – onshore wind is officially back.  

• The UK’s climate is naturally suited to onshore wind and several renewable developers have shared plans to expand their existing farms and construct new sites with high-performance turbines, which could dramatically increase wind farm capacity and benefit the economy. 

• The government aims to double the country’s onshore wind power capacity by 2030, but there are concerns that the infrastructure isn’t in place to support this rapid growth.  

• With more radical policies such as the ban on new North Sea oil and gas exploration facing legal challenges and the need to start from zero with the construction of farms, the positive response to reversing the onshore wind ban has been tempered by a feeling that it could be too much too soon.    

The detail

Among the UK’s renewables, onshore wind arguably has the biggest potential to fuel the energy transition. It is one of the cheapest ways to generate electricity, is fast to build (taking less than a year if planning and grid restraints are mitigated), and has already produced impressive results. The UK’s 1,500 operational onshore wind farms are the result of a cumulative investment of £35 billion, resulting in 12 gigawatts of capacity, which is enough to meet the needs of more than 7.25 million homes a year. 

However, a de-facto ban introduced by David Cameron’s government in 2015 has effectively stalled growth in this sector for the past nine years. In 2022, Ukraine built more onshore wind turbines than England, despite the Russian invasion, and the only projects in the pipeline prior to the general election were those that proposed installing one or two turbines on private property. 

When Cameron declared that the county had enough wind projects in 2015, wind power made up 10% of the UK’s total energy mix. Today, it’s the country’s largest source of renewable energy, accounting for 29.4% in 2023. This growth is mainly due to expansion of offshore wind farms, which were prioritised due to the public’s negative perception of onshore facilities and concerns over their impact on the environment. These dual factors – public opinion and environmental fears – led the government to introduce two onshore footnotes to the National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), which meant that any new project could only be executed if there was strong proof there was no opposition to the new wind turbines at the local level. 

Overturning the ban and investing in onshore wind  

This all changed on 4 July 2024 when Labour won a landslide victory in the general election. Just four days later, on 8 July, the new government confirmed that the de-facto ban would be removed while also reasserting its manifesto pledge to double onshore wind energy by 2030. In her speech to parliament, Chancellor Rachel Reeves referred to the move as, “ending the absurd ban on new onshore wind in England”, while also indicating that the government will start a consultation on making onshore wind development decisions nationally rather than locally. 

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband also made clear that this move is integral to improving the UK’s energy security and lowering energy bills. He also invited global investors to start “moving forward with plans to invest in Britain’s clean energy future.” 

This change in policy reflects a wider change in public opinion. A recent survey found that 78% of the UK population now supports onshore wind as awareness of the importance of clean energy is also increasing. It’s important to note that doubling onshore wind won’t necessarily require doubling the number of turbines; modern turbines are more efficient and powerful so more capacity can be generated with less.  

Encouraging new developments  

The initial reaction to reversing the ban has been positive; environmental campaigners and electricity giants alike have spoken out in support of the government’s focus on onshore wind power. The move has environmental and economic benefits; Renewable UK estimate that if the government can double the UK’s onshore wind capacity by 2030 and deliver 30 gigawatts of capacity it will boost the economy by £45 billion and create 27,000 jobs.  

At least half a dozen renewables developers have started to identify potential windfarm sites since the announcement. Germany’s RWE has said it began investigating viable sites prior to the election and expects its project pipeline to develop quite quickly while EDF Renewables, RES Group, Coriolis Energy, and Ridge Energy have also confirmed they are moving forward with onshore windfarm project plans in England. My company Gamcap is amongst this group and is currently evaluating potential onshore wind developments.

Even so, it’s fair to say that these developers are still proceeding with caution. Ian Hunt, the global head of asset management for RES Group, said: “England is definitely a core market for us, but each project will be judged on its own merits and in light of the impact it might have on the environment and local communities.”  

EDF Renewables currently has 36 operational onshore wind farms in the UK with its largest, West Benhar, providing 30.1 MW of low carbon electricity each year, enough to power 18,000 homes. It has spoken about the benefits of building farms in one of the windiest countries in the world and how important it is to take advantage of this natural asset but has also worked to offset public concerns by establishing community benefit funds. The community surrounding West Benhar, for example, has access to a fund worth just over £150,000 per year.   

In 2024, SSE Renewables is also planning to start producing electricity from its Viking Wind Farm in Shetland. Once operational, it will be the UK’s most productive onshore wind farm in terms of annual electricity output, with turbines specially designed to harness Shetland’s wind conditions. The farm is expected to generate 1.796 GWh per year, powering 475,099 homes, which is equivalent to the entire population of Shetland.  

Removing the roadblocks  

Even so, any new projects won’t be realised overnight. As Emma Pinchbeck, Chief Executive of Energy UK, said: “the de-facto ban has significantly reduced the pipeline for onshore wind. It will take time for this to recover.” The proposal process can take several years and onshore wind farms can take up to seven years to develop depending on their size and whether a grid connection is available.  

Infrastructure and the grid could prove to be a major roadblock to the government’s ambitious targets. It is widely agreed that the grid is antiquated and not fit for purpose. In fact, more than 100 GW of wind energy projects in the UK are currently waiting for their grid connection assessment. It’s estimated that five times more electricity infrastructure will need to be put in place by 2030 than has been implemented in the past three decades to deliver a net zero grid.  

It’s not a question of space: environmental campaign group, Friends of the Earth, has identified 2,198 km² of land that would be suitable for new onshore wind farms. If this land was utilised it could have a capacity of 95,542 GWh – 13 times more than the UK’s current capacity. The concerns of the public can also be managed as the environmental and visual impact of wind farms could be reduced through careful site selection, design, and operation.  

Too much too soon? 

Alarm bells might not be ringing so loudly if removing the ban on onshore wind was the only energy policy that Labour had introduced in its first six weeks. A more controversial move has been the government’s plan to impose its ban on new North Sea oil and gas exploration.  

This policy is deeply unpopular with energy industry groups and labour unions and there has even been talk of legal challenges. 76 companies submitted 115 bids for new site explorations in autumn 2023 and some are still awaiting decisions. The tendering process can be costly, and there are concerns about the potential blowback if Labour reject these final bids to follow through with an immediate ban. Instead, unions are calling for a phased and responsible transition that will help safeguard the millions of jobs that rely on the North Sea industry.  

There’s no denying that when it comes to climate change, time is not on our side. The new Labour government has proved it isn’t afraid to act fast and take decisive action in its first few weeks, but could it be at risk of trying to change too much too quickly? The North Sea oil and gas exploration ban proves that making widespread changes at speed can lead to backlash. Onshore wind has a great deal of potential and public opinion has shifted since 2015, but the target of doubling its capacity by 2030 may be too ambitious - although I hope not.  

For the UK to make the most of its natural resources and maximise the potential of onshore wind power, development from renewable energy companies will need to be combined with investment in new infrastructure and close collaboration with local communities to ensure the public remain supportive when new turbines start popping up in their area. Reversing the ban is the first step in a journey that will take time and money – and six years may not be enough time to overcome the impact of the last nine. Ambitious goals are important, but realistic targets may be even more valuable if the energy transition is to succeed.    

— Lew 👋

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