Decarbonising the grid by 2035 – two years on from the announcement, is it realistic?

TL;DR

• Decarbonising the grid is critical to helping the UK meet its net-zero goals. In June 2021, the government set a target of complete decarbonisation by 2035.  

• This ambitious target was accompanied by a high-level plan to ramp up the UK’s wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power capacity to provide cleaner, greener electricity and reduce reliance on volatile imported fossil fuels.  

• However, to make this vision a reality, substantial investment must be combined with an improved infrastructure, new technologies to support the storage of renewable energy, and public support.  

• Offshore wind capacity would need to increase five-fold by 2030 and solar power five-fold by 2035 to provide 70% of the total energy required by the UK and hundreds of billions of investment would also be needed to support this growth.  

• Meanwhile, the grid is already struggling to accommodate the renewable energy projects which are going online – this is leading to bottlenecks and causing frustration among developers.  

• Experts are concerned that there is no strategy in place to make decarbonisation of the grid possible. Without clear direction, investors aren’t inspired to contribute, the public aren’t engaged, and renewable energy sources can’t expand at a rapid enough rate – current levels of wind, solar, and nuclear are at a quarter of what they need to be.  

• It’s not too late, but a clear plan must be implemented, and steps taken urgently, if decarbonisation is to be achieved by 2035 and the UK can remain on track to meet its 2050 net-zero commitment.  

The detail

If the UK is to honour its commitment and achieve net-zero by 2050, decarbonising the grid is a critical milestone to meet.  

Prior to 2014, the electricity industry had the highest carbon emissions of all other sectors, but today improvements have been made and it is now the UK’s fourth biggest contributor, representing 14% of the country’s total emissions. Although this shift demonstrates the success of decarbonisation efforts so far, there are still some alarming fluctuations, for example, emissions for the sector increased 1% between 2021 and 2022. 

In June 2021, Boris Johnson’s government announced plans to decarbonise the grid by 2035 – rapidly accelerating a process that was already underway as part of the net-zero goal. In the past 15 years, great strides towards achieving decarbonisation have been made. In 2015, renewable energy capacity rose above both nuclear and coal for the first time and overtook fossil fuels entirely in 2020. Efforts to phase out the UK’s use of coal and gas have also led to several coal generators closing (and being replaced by low-carbon wind and solar alternatives). As a result, coal accounted for just 2% of total electricity generation in 2019, down from 40% in 2012. 

This reduction in the UK’s reliance on fossil fuels is working hand-in-hand with the rise of renewables. Wind, solar, bioenergy, and hydro power generated 42% of the UK’s power in 2020, compared to the 41% generated by fossil fuels. This is particularly impressive growth when you consider that renewables only made up 7% of total power output in 2010. 

Even so, there is still a way to go if the UK is to decarbonise the grid by 2035.  

Renewable energy from a variety of different sources needs to be effectively generated and stored at scale, yet, at present, certain renewables are falling behind. While wind power made up nearly a quarter of electricity output in 2020, solar only accounted for 4% – a figure that has barely increased since 2018. Storage is required to ensure solar, wind, and other sustainable energy sources can serve the UK’s fluctuating energy demands throughout the year as seamlessly as fossil fuels.  

All plan, no action?  

The UK’s pledge to decarbonise the grid by 2035 brought the original target forward 15 years. It’s an ambitious goal that is designed to be supported by homegrown green technologies such as onshore and offshore wind and nuclear energy as well as hydrogen, solar, and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Not only would meeting this target provider cleaner, greener electricity, but it would also improve security in the energy sector, reducing the UK’s reliance on imported fossil fuels that are susceptible to volatile global wholesale prices.  

The plan sounds fantastic in theory, but what is required to put it into practice? At the time of writing, the government still hasn’t issued a detailed breakdown of the steps that need to be taken to meet its decarbonisation target. In fact, some of its decisions, such as approving new coal and gas licences and delaying the ban on petrol and diesel cars to 2035, appear to be actively working against this clean and green ambition.  

In lieu of a government strategy, National Grid has outlined five priority areas that need to be tackled to meet this goal – an undertaking that it describes as a “fundamental step-change”. Planning and implementing new frameworks lie at the core of the National Grid’s proposal. It is essential that regulation and governance are given equal consideration to determining what needs to be built, when, and where.  

The are also significant delays in connecting new energy projects to the grid, creating a bottleneck for renewable developments and causing huge frustration among developers. The surge in renewable energy projects, while of course a positive trend, is outpacing the grid's capacity to integrate them. Coupled with outdated infrastructure and complex, time-consuming approval processes, it is a problem which is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. To overcome this, reforms around queue management, infrastructure upgrades and streamlined processes to accelerate project connections are urgently needed. There has been some positive signal, but more needs to happen and faster.  

Recommended actions include amending Ofgem’s duties to explicitly support the delivery of net-zero, implementing tighter thresholds for those applying to connect clean energy to the grid, creating a package of incentives to help develop supply chain capacity, and putting communities and consumers at the forefront of plans through localisation. 

Rapid and sustained growth  

According to the Climate Change Committee (CCC), if the grid is to be decarbonised by 2035, there needs to be a rapid overhaul of the UK’s planning systems and regulations. The growth needed is currently being hampered by a lack of critical infrastructure, storage opportunities, and policy gaps. To transport and store electricity, hydrogen, and CO2 effectively, continued research development, demonstration, and deployment is required to bring emerging technologies to the market.  

Wind and solar have the greatest potential to drive decarbonisation. The CCC believes these two energy sources could satisfy 70% of the UK’s demand, with another 20% also generated from nuclear and biomass energy, while the remaining 10% would need to be sourced from flexible low-carbon solutions. Any gaps due to seasonality could be filled with gas or hydrogen assuming CCS is built into the process. 

For this vision of the future to become reality, the ramp up in requirements is daunting. Experts predict that offshore wind capacity would need to increase five-fold by 2030 and solar power five-fold by 2035. This would mean a jump from 10GW to 44GW in offshore wind, an increase from 14GW to between 30 and 44GW in onshore wind, and a growth from 15GW to between 22GW and 30GW for solar.  

The demand for electricity is also likely to expand in the coming years. As the UK takes steps to reach net-zero by 2050, more buildings, transport, and industries will start to be powered by electricity rather than fossil fuels. This switch, alongside the expanding population, will mean the UK’s electricity demand will be 50% higher than pre-Covid levels by 2035, requiring onshore wind capacity to be built 40% faster than the current record.  

Strategic investment  

The consensus among decarbonisation experts is that the 2035 target could still be achievable, but only if a co-ordinated strategic approach is introduced, complemented with investment. Estimates of how much money is needed vary; the CCC believes building resilience in the system and building low-carbon solutions like gas CCS and hydrogen turbines will require £300bn to £430bn of investment. In contrast, Cornwall Insight project that £200bn will be needed. Whichever figure you take, it’s clear that hundreds of billions must be committed to make reaching decarbonisation by 2035 a possibility.   

However, it is the lack of a clear strategy that causes most concern, with even the CCC unsure of where the responsibility for this lies. The Energy Futures Lab, based at Imperial College London, is calling for urgent attention to be paid to this project and for a long-term strategy to be published. This will also help to engage the public, which currently has limited understanding of the true scale of the task ahead. “Community opposition has the potential to derail the timely decarbonisation of our power system,” said Dr Aidan Rhodes, Research Fellow at Energy Futures Lab. “It is essential that the government secures public support for its efforts.”  

So close yet so far 

Fortunately, there are bright spots on the horizon.  

Cornwall Insight points to potential nuclear developments in Sizewell C in Suffolk, Wylfa Newydd on Anglesey, and Rolls-Royce’s smaller modular reactors, which could increase the UK’s nuclear capacity to 15GW by 2035.  

The need to store renewable energy effectively to safeguard against volatility in renewable rates of generation is similarly acute; the country’s current battery capacity is at 1.3GW – a figure that needs to grow to 18GW. Happily, 20GW of battery capacity projects are in the works, but given industry attrition rates, how many of these will go on to become operational? 

It’s also promising that the government acknowledges renewable energy is the cheapest form of electricity generation and can be harnessed cost-effectively.  

Even so, within government itself, the mood is sceptical. The MPs who make up the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) note that the energy generated by wind, nuclear, and solar power is at a quarter of where it needs to be. Short-term priorities, such as providing energy bill support, while vital, have distracted from longer-term decarbonisation efforts. This lack of attention, coupled with an unclear delivery plan, has also failed to attract investors.  

Without urgent change, two years on from the announcement, there seems to be little confidence that the goal of decarbonising the grid by 2035 will be met. The current rate of deployment, investment, and strategic momentum is insufficient and the growth needed across wind, solar, nuclear, and hydrogen appears insurmountable. If the incoming government doesn’t take the reins and immediately implement a plan that meets all five of the National Grid’s priorities, there seems little hope of the 2035 goal being met, which could have a knock-on effect on the UK’s ability to reach net-zero by 2050.  

It's not too late, but time is clearly running out.  

 — Lew 👋

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